Blackjack Risk of Ruin

Risk of Ruin is:

The probability that you will lose your entire bankroll

In the earlier post on Blackjack Bankroll Requirements you learned how to calculate win per hand when including comps.

  • Reminder: net win per hand in units of 0.0029 was calculated in the earlier post
  • If your total bankroll is $1,000 and you bet $5 per hand then your bankroll size is 200 units ($1,000 / $5)

Looking at the chart below your risk of ruin for this scenario is approximately 39.8%.

Blackjack Risk of Ruin

Here is another example of calculating risk of ruin based on receiving Free Rooms in Vegas.

  • Betting unit size is $25 / hand
  • Net Win per Hand is ( $85 in comps / 4 hours of play / 70 hands per hour / $25 betting unit size ) – 0.0060 loss from playing blackjack = 0.0061

If your bankroll is $5000 (200 units) then your risk of ruin is approximately 15.9%

If your bankroll is $7500 (300 units) then your risk of ruin is approximately 6.3%

It is critical to understand bankroll requirements when playing blackjack so that you understand the risk of losing your entire bankroll and you can size your bankroll appropriately.

One last reminder, you need to follow my 4 Rules of Blackjack Money Management for this strategy to work.

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